Finance Minister P Chidambaram said Inflation control measures like sucking excess money out of the economy and the robust GDP growth cannot go hand in hand. Tightening of money supply would impact growth. The RBI is due to announce the annual credit policy on April 29 and economists are expecting hike in the CRR in the wake of inflation touching a three-year high of 7.41 per cent, bringing the government under political and public pressure.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
'Pandemic has triggered interest and awareness among the people about the need for healthcare.'
The manufacturing sector during the fourth quarter recorded a growth rate of 9.3 per cent while the farm sector grew at 2.3 per cent.
The prime minister's insistence that his voice cannot be suppressed left me both puzzled and amused. He has at his call, the government's official news dissemination/publicity channels, the pliant newspapers and television channels that were eager to prostrate themselves before a powerful government and yet, the dominant voice thinks it is in competition with other voices! exclaims Shyam G Menon.
Analysts expect modest recovery in Indian economy.
The overall FPI inflows should move into the range of $15-20 billion in fiscal 2017 with equity dominating with $10-15 billion and debt with $5 billion
The government has set seven per cent as the GDP target for this year.
India, whose economy has been coasting along at 8 per cent for the last three years, can achieve 9.5 per cent GDP growth even in the absence of hard labour reforms or foreign direct investment in the retail sector.
Government's effective supply-side measures and commendable commitment to fiscal consolidation will have a salutary impact on inflation, says the RBI report.
Growth in the third quarter (October-December) is expected to be the weakest in years, with spending hit due to unavailability of enough replacement currency.
The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter.
The Centre's revenue deficit is expected to go up by 0.75 per cent of the GDP this fiscal following the implementation of the 12th Finance Commission recommendations, RBI said.
Very often, 'sentiment' drives prices well beyond what is warranted and it is hard to forecast market sentiment, explains Debashis Basu.
Manufacturing sector activities in India moderated in June from a 31-month high in May, but output remained in the growth territory, as new work orders expanded sharply amid favourable demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 58.7 in May to 57.8 in June. Despite the fall, the headline figure pointed to a considerable improvement in operating conditions, the survey said, adding that the demand strength positively impacted several other measures such as sales, production, stock building and employment.
India's services sector activity eased in August but growth rates for new orders remain elevated, as services firms indicated the sharpest upturn in new export business which acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. Despite falling from 62.3 in July to 60.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated one of the strongest increases in output seen since mid-2010. For the 25th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold.
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were among the major laggards. HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Titan, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, State Bank of India and Mahindra & Mahindra were the gainers.
Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier for FY2023, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter". The National Statistical Office on Wednesday released the Q1 growth numbers which showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector. Consensus forecast was 15-16.7 per cent of which the RBI made the highest forecast of 16.7 per cent.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday suggested the G20 trade ministers to work collectively to ensure equitable competition between large and small sellers as there are challenges in the fast growing cross-border e-commerce. In a video message at the G20 Trade and Investment Minister's meeting here, he also emphasised on the need to address the problems faced by consumers in fair price discovery and grievance handling mechanisms. "Digitising processes and use of e-commerce have the potential to enhance market access. "I am glad that your group is working on the 'High Level Principles for the Digitalization of Trade Documents'. These principles can help countries in implementing cross-border electronic trade measures, and reduce compliance burdens.
India's economic growth slipped to 6.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2004-05 from 11 per cent in the year-ago period.
'My understanding is that by the time President Xi Jinping came for the Chennai summit [2019], he had already instructed his army to undertake the action in Galwan in the summer of 2020.'
Amid demands for snapping trade ties with China for its transgressions on the border, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth. Instead, Panagariya suggested that India should try to enter into free trade agreements (FTA) with countries such as the UK and the European Union to expand its trade. "Engaging China in a trade war at this juncture will mean sacrificing a considerable part of our potential growth... purely on economic grounds, it will be unwise to take any action in response to it (transgressions on the border)," the eminent economist told PTI.
Former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth.
India's services sector growth accelerated in April, as strong demand conditions resulted in the fastest increase in new business and output in close to 13 years, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The pick-up in demand occurred in spite of escalating price pressures. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.8 in March to 62.0 in April, signalling the fastest expansion in output since mid 2010, amid a pick-up in new business growth and favourable market conditions.
Sounding a note of caution, former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that India is "dangerously close" to the Hindu rate of growth in view of subdued private sector investment, high interest rates and slowing global growth. Rajan said that sequential slowdown in the quarterly growth, as revealed by the latest estimate of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last month, was worrying. Hindu rate of growth is a term describing low Indian economic growth rates from the 1950s to the 1980s, which averaged around 4 per cent.
'I want us not to underestimate Indian voters. They can tell good work from bad.'
manufacturing apparently grew at over 5 per cent.
This is a terrible situation for a growing economy to be in, and the central bank would be expected to act to correct the situation.
'When you do some job for a few hours, you are hardly earning enough to survive.'
Even as India strives to climb the development mountain, the fact is that the mountaintop is already crowded. If it got there in 2047, India would be very much a late-comer, observes T N Ninan.
According to the report by the global financial services major, the FY2013-14 CAD is expected to be within $36 billion or 2 per cent of GDP, and this fiscal year CAD is likely to be slightly higher but contained at 2.3 per cent of GDP.
India's services sector growth eased to a three-month low in June but service providers continued to signal positive demand trends, which resulted in a stronger increase in new business volumes and further job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 61.2 in May to 58.5 in June. Despite falling from May, the latest figure was consistent with a sharp pace of growth.
If the Centre and states are keen on spending more to meet the COVID-19 challenges in the coming year, they must bear in mind the need to raise more resources through taxes and non-tax revenues, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
GDP growth in November is the second-highest since January 2012 when it had expanded 5.7%.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the next fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 10.3 per cent, citing sharply high energy prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the Omicron wave subsiding quickly, containment measures have been scaled back, setting the stage for a pick-up in GDP growth momentum in the June quarter this year, the agency said. It has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.6 percentage points to 8.7 per cent.
The Survey projected growth rate of 7-7.75 per cent for 2016-17 with downside risks due to weak global economic scenario.
Eminent economist Arvind Panagariya has said India is on the cusp of returning to a high growth trajectory and voiced confidence that the country will become the world's third-largest economy by 2027-28. Currently, India is the fifth largest economy "so it's another five years.We are already in (the year) 2023. "So 2027-28, India should be the third-largest economy," Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, told PTI in an interview in New York.
"There has been a 0.05 percentage points decline in the share of allocation for child budget to the Union Budget from 2.35 per cent (2022-23 BE) to 2.30 per cent (2023-24 BE).
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
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