Former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
India's services sector growth eased to a three-month low in June but service providers continued to signal positive demand trends, which resulted in a stronger increase in new business volumes and further job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 61.2 in May to 58.5 in June. Despite falling from May, the latest figure was consistent with a sharp pace of growth.
On one hand, South Indian states have been complaining about denial of a proportionate portion of the sharable funds from the Centre, based on population. On the other hand, they stand to lose Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats that again are based on population, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Growth in the third quarter (October-December) is expected to be the weakest in years, with spending hit due to unavailability of enough replacement currency.
Government's effective supply-side measures and commendable commitment to fiscal consolidation will have a salutary impact on inflation, says the RBI report.
India, whose economy has been coasting along at 8 per cent for the last three years, can achieve 9.5 per cent GDP growth even in the absence of hard labour reforms or foreign direct investment in the retail sector.
The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter.
The Centre's revenue deficit is expected to go up by 0.75 per cent of the GDP this fiscal following the implementation of the 12th Finance Commission recommendations, RBI said.
'If you want it to grow well and serve the true needs of the economy, it needs a lot of freedom and flexibility, which comes in terms of the reform objective set by the regulator.'
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
"There has been a 0.05 percentage points decline in the share of allocation for child budget to the Union Budget from 2.35 per cent (2022-23 BE) to 2.30 per cent (2023-24 BE).
Eminent economist Arvind Panagariya has said India is on the cusp of returning to a high growth trajectory and voiced confidence that the country will become the world's third-largest economy by 2027-28. Currently, India is the fifth largest economy "so it's another five years.We are already in (the year) 2023. "So 2027-28, India should be the third-largest economy," Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, told PTI in an interview in New York.
India's economic growth slipped to 6.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2004-05 from 11 per cent in the year-ago period.
If the Centre and states are keen on spending more to meet the COVID-19 challenges in the coming year, they must bear in mind the need to raise more resources through taxes and non-tax revenues, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
'They have started becoming an important player, but not at the same level as they were in the earlier part of the decade.'
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, who presented the budget in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, said the government will target a growth rate of 3.5 per cent in the coming fiscal year.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the next fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 10.3 per cent, citing sharply high energy prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the Omicron wave subsiding quickly, containment measures have been scaled back, setting the stage for a pick-up in GDP growth momentum in the June quarter this year, the agency said. It has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.6 percentage points to 8.7 per cent.
Why did Karnataka's economic prosperity fail to influence the nature of electoral promises made by political parties in the run-up to the assembly elections? asks A K Bhattacharya.
manufacturing apparently grew at over 5 per cent.
This is a terrible situation for a growing economy to be in, and the central bank would be expected to act to correct the situation.
According to the report by the global financial services major, the FY2013-14 CAD is expected to be within $36 billion or 2 per cent of GDP, and this fiscal year CAD is likely to be slightly higher but contained at 2.3 per cent of GDP.
India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
GDP growth in November is the second-highest since January 2012 when it had expanded 5.7%.
The Indian services sector expanded at the strongest rate in 12 years in February supported by favourable demand conditions and new business gains, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February -- its highest level in 12 years. For the 19th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
The Survey projected growth rate of 7-7.75 per cent for 2016-17 with downside risks due to weak global economic scenario.
India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to sticking to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal, official sources said on Monday. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market, the sources said. India meets nearly 85 per cent of its oil demand through imports and a weaker rupee makes imports costlier.
The Union government could target a fiscal deficit of 5.8-6 per cent of nominal GDP for 2023-24, and it should continue its capital expenditure push and look to simplify the personal income tax regime, economists recommended Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her team during their pre-Budget interaction on Monday. Starting last week, Sitharaman had eight pre-Budget consultations this time. More than 110 invitees representing seven stakeholder groups participated in these meetings, the finance ministry said in a statement. The stakeholder groups included representatives and experts from agriculture and agro-processing industry; industry, infrastructure & climate change; financial sector and capital markets; services and trade; social sector; trade unions and labour organisations; and economists.
Modi's Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan or Self-reliant India Mission is about 10 per cent of India's GDP in 2019-20 and would rank behind Japan, the US, Sweden, Australia and Germany. But unlike most of the relief packages announced globally, Rs 20 lakh crore is not entirely in new spending and includes Rs 1.7 lakh crore package the government had announced in March as well as the steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) such as liquidity enhancing measures and interest rate cuts.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel will go for a 0.35 per cent hike in the key repo rate at its meeting next week, an American brokerage said on Wednesday. The hike will be accompanied by a change in the policy stance to "calibrated tightening", Bofa Securities said in a report published ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resolution which is set to be announced on August 5. RBI has hiked the rate by a cumulative 0.90 per cent in two tightening moves in May and June, responding to the runaway headline inflation which has consistently overshot the upper end of the target set for the central bank for many months.
'People trust India and Indians a lot more than they trust China and the Chinese.'
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
The increased amount, defence sources say, will be consumed mostly by the allocation for employees-related expenses, salaries and allowances of servicemen.
The richest one per cent in India now own more than 40 per cent of the country's total wealth, while the bottom half of the population together share just 3 per cent of wealth, a new study showed on Monday.
Rajan also said the outlook for agriculture is subdued, in view of both rabi and kharif prospects being hit by monsoon vagaries.
The richest one per cent in India now own more than 40 per cent of the country's total wealth, while the bottom half of the population together share just 3 per cent of wealth, a new study showed on Monday. Releasing the India supplement of its annual inequality report on the first day of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, rights group Oxfam International said that taxing India's ten-richest at 5 per cent can fetch entire money to bring children back to school. "A one-off tax on unrealized gains from 2017-2021 on just one billionaire, Gautam Adani, could have raised Rs 1.79 lakh crore, enough to employ more than five million Indian primary school teachers for a year," it added.
Much of the Q3 data will simply not be available for the CSO to factor in its calculation.
Maybe the new methods of measuring GDP helped us get an accurate picture.
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
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